NOgunSIM – uma modelagem baseada em agentes para análise exploratória de uma política de flexibilização do porte de armas

Embora estudos recentes tenham apresentado fortes evidências sobre a relação entre armas e alguns tipos de crime, esse ainda será um tema muito presente no debate sobre políticas de segurança pública e redução da violência. Afinal, qual é o efeito da flexibilização na política de armas sobre o comportamento das vítimas e agressores? Pretendemos realizar uma análise exploratória dessa política, através do desenvolvimento de um Modelo Baseado em Agentes. O NOgunSIM é um modelo que pretende, através de simulação computacional, ilustrar os mecanismos racionais descritos pela Teoria dos Movimentos, contribuindo para a compreensão da teoria e das lacunas de informação que devem nortear a tomada de decisão dos legisladores. A implementação desse modelo nos permite testar a aplicação de uma política de porte de armas menos restritiva em uma sociedade artificial. Em geral, o NOgunSIM foi capaz de representar de forma satisfatória as escolhas e mudanças nas estratégias da vítima e do agressor em um confronto direto conforme previsto pela Teoria dos Movimentos. Os resultados das políticas testadas mostram que se uma política de porte de armas menos restrita de fato alterar o comportamento dos agressores da forma prevista na literatura, o resultado é um agravamento do número de ataques violentos, aumentando o número de mortes.Although recent studies have presented some strong evidences about the relationship between weapons and some types of crime, this will still be a very present theme in the debate on public safety policies and violence reduction. After all, what is the effect of a looseness on on gun policy over the behavior of victims and aggressors? We aim to carry out an exploratory analysis of such a policy, through the development of an Agent Based Model. NOgunSIM is a model that intends, through computer simulation, to illustrate the rational mechanisms described by Theory of Moves, contributing to the understanding of the theory and information gaps that should guide the decision-making of legislators. The implementation of this model allows us to test the application of a less restrictive gun carry policy in an artificial society. In general, NOgunSIM was able to satisfactorily represent the choices and changes in victim and aggressor strategies in a direct confrontation as predicted by the Theory of Moves. The results of tested policies show that if a less restrict gun carry policy in fact changes the behavior of the aggressors in the way foreseen in the literature, the result is a worsening of the number of violent attacks, increasing the number of deaths

VIDA : a simulation model of domestic violence in times of social distancing

Violence against women occurs predominantly in the family and domestic context. The COVID-19 pandemic has led Brazil to recommend and at times, impose social distancing, with the partial closure of economic activities, schools, and restrictions on events and public services. Preliminary evidence shows that intense coexistence increases domestic violence, while social distancing measures may have prevented access to public services and networks, information, and help. We propose an agent-based model (ABM), called VIDA, to formalize and illustrate a multitude of factors that influence events which could trigger violence. A central part of the model is the construction of a stress indicator, created as a probability trigger of domestic violence occurring within the family environment. Having a formal model that replicates observed patterns of violence based on internal familial characteristics enables us to experiment with altering dynamics. We first tested the (a) absence or presence of the deterrence system of domestic violence against women and then (b) the existence of measures to increase social distancing. VIDA presents comparative results for metropolitan regions and neighborhoods considered in the experiments. Results suggest that social distancing measures, particularly those encouraging staying at home, may have increased domestic violence against women by about 10%. VIDA suggests further that more populated areas have comparatively fewer cases per hundred thousand women than less populous capitals or rural areas of urban concentrations. This paper contributes to the literature by formalizing, to the best of our knowledge, the first model of domestic violence through agent-based modeling, using empirical detailed socioeconomic, demographic, educational, gender, and race data at the intraurban (census sectors) and household level

Judicial policy diffusion : a model to analyze specialized state courts fighting organized crime in Brazil

This article examines the judicial specialization process of courts focused on fighting organized crime in Brazilian states. The study describes the policy diffusion, which adopted the mechanisms of learning and emulation, and proposes a theoretical model. The literature reviewed associates the debate on judicial policies, specialization of courts, and public policy diffusion. Specialization of state courts was implemented in Brazil in four different waves throughout the period between the edition of the National Council of Justice Recommendation in 2006, until nowadays. The specialization of courts in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil was carried out to fight organized crime related to drug trafficking and criminal groups. The most recent wave originated as an outcome of the corruption investigation known as Operation Car Wash, apparently associated with political and economic corruption in the Southeast, Central-West, and South regions of the country

Vida : simulando violência doméstica em tempos de quarentena

A violência contra a mulher ocorre predominantemente no contexto familiar e doméstico. A pandemia de Covid-19 (Sars-COV-2) levou o Brasil a recomendar e, por vezes, impor o distanciamento social, com fechamento parcial de atividades econômicas, escolas e restrições de eventos e serviços públicos. Com isso, houve intensificação da presença das famílias na sua própria residência. Há indícios preliminares de que a convivência mais intensa gerou aumento nos casos de violência doméstica, ao mesmo tempo que pode ter coibido acesso a redes e serviços públicos e causado privação de informação e ajuda. Propomos um modelo baseado em agentes (ABM), denominado VIDA (VIolência DomésticA), no intuito de ilustrar e examinar fatores multicausais que influenciam eventos geradores de violência. A formalização dos efeitos permite testar presença ou ausência de sistemas de dissuasão e aumento da intensidade da permanência no domicílio. A parte central do modelo reflete a criação de um indicador de stress, multicausal, que funciona como probabilidade de ocorrência de ataque à mulher no ambiente familiar. Ao mesmo tempo, foi implementado um sistema de dissuasão baseado em denúncia, solicitação de proteção e acusação do agressor. VIDA foi calibrado para os números de notificações de violência coletados pelo Senado Federal para 2011. Após a análise de sensibilidade, dois testes são realizados: i) a ausência ou a presença do sistema de dissuasão; e ii) a quarentena forçada. VIDA apresenta ordens de magnitude por áreas de concentração e áreas de ponderação (APs) para esses testes. VIDA indica que a quarentena pode ter aumentado a violência contra a mulher em cerca de 10%. Os resultados das simulações com VIDA sugerem ainda que locais mais populosos apresentam comparativamente menos ataques por 100 mil mulheres do que capitais menos populosas ou áreas rurais das concentrações urbanas. As contribuições do trabalho incluem a formalização de um modelo de violência doméstica por meio de modelagem baseada em agentes, ao que parece, inexistente na literatura, que ilustra fatores socioeconômicos, demográficos, educacionais, de gênero e cor, com dados detalhados no nível intraurbano e para todas as grandes aglomerações populacionais brasileiras. Adicionalmente, todo um processo de geração de população artificial para a simulação foi criada e está disponível, assim como todo o código do modelo, com acesso livre, em repositório público, na internet.Violence against women occurs predominantly in the family and domestic context. The Covid-19 (Sars-COV-2) pandemic led Brazil to recommend and, at times, impose social distance, with a partial closure of economic activities, schools, and restrictions on events and public services. As a result, there was an intensification of the presence of families in their residence. Preliminary evidence shows that intense coexistence increases domestic violence. At the same time, quarantine may have prevented access to public networks and services and deprivation of information and help. We propose an agentbased model (ABM), called VIDA, to illustrate and examine multi-causal factors that influence events that generate violence. The formalization of the effects allows testing the presence or absence of deterrence systems and increasing the intensity of the stay at home. A central part of the model reflects the creation of a multi-causal stress indicator, which functions as the probability of an attack occurring in the family environment. At the same time, a deterrent system based on reporting, requesting protection and accusing the perpetrator was implemented. VIDA was calibrated for the numbers of notifications of violence collected by the Federal Senate in 2011. After a sensitivity analysis, two tests are performed: i) absence or presence of the deterrence system and forced quarantine. VIDA presents orders of magnitude for Areas of concentration and weighting areas for these tests. VIDA indicates that quarantine may have increased violence against women by about 10%. The results of simulations with VIDA suggest that more populated sites have comparatively fewer attacks per hundred thousand women than less populous capitals or rural areas of urban concentrations. The paper’s contributions include the formalization of a model of domestic violence through agent-based modeling, which, it seems, does not exist in the literature, which illustrates socioeconomic, demographic, educational, gender and color factors, with detailed data at the intra-urban and for all major Brazilian population agglomerations. In addition, a whole process of generation of an artificial population for the simulation was created and is available, as well as all the model code, with free access, in a public repository, on the internet

Integrated genomic characterization of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

We performed integrated genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic profiling of 150 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) specimens, including samples with characteristic low neoplastic cellularity. Deep whole-exome sequencing revealed recurrent somatic mutations in KRAS, TP53, CDKN2A, SMAD4, RNF43, ARID1A, TGFβR2, GNAS, RREB1, and PBRM1. KRAS wild-type tumors harbored alterations in other oncogenic drivers, including GNAS, BRAF, CTNNB1, and additional RAS pathway genes. A subset of tumors harbored multiple KRAS mutations, with some showing evidence of biallelic mutations. Protein profiling identified a favorable prognosis subset with low epithelial-mesenchymal transition and high MTOR pathway scores. Associations of non-coding RNAs with tumor-specific mRNA subtypes were also identified. Our integrated multi-platform analysis reveals a complex molecular landscape of PDAC and provides a roadmap for precision medicine